With the 98th Annual Academy Awards just days away, the final debates are raging. Who will take home the gold, and who, in a perfect world, truly deserves it?The Hollywood Reporter‘s awards expert Scott Feinberg and chief film critic David Rooney go head-to-head, offering their final predictions on the probable and preferred victors in every major category.
One Battle After Another – Dominated precursor awards (DGA, PGA, Globes, Critics Choice, BAFTAs).
David Rooney
One Battle After Another – A radical, timely epic with a stellar ensemble led by Leonardo DiCaprio, tapping into collective discontent. (Though he personally prefers The Secret Agent).
Best Director
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) – Overdue with 14 noms; won every major precursor, including the DGA.
David Rooney
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) – For delivering a bold, original work with expertly crafted narrative and thematic layers.
Best Actress
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) – Has swept the entire circuit of televised awards (Critics Choice, Globes, BAFTA, Actor).
David Rooney
Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value) – For a transfixing balance of emotional volatility and sly humor.
Best Actor
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) – Prevailed at the Actor awards; slightly older, more understated performance in a better-liked film.
David Rooney
Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) – Makes something extraordinary of an ordinary man with a calm exterior belying turbulent interiority.
Best Supporting Actor
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) – Won BAFTA and Actor awards despite not campaigning.
David Rooney
Stellan Skarsgard (Sentimental Value) – For his wily ability to keep the audience in the corner of a narcissistic, yet compelling, filmmaker.
Best Supporting Actress
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
Amy Madigan (Weapons) – Veteran status, relationships, and a colorful turn in a BP nominee should boost her.
David Rooney
Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) – Floored him as a spiritual healer whose toughness and wisdom translate across worlds.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) – Swept USC Scripter, Critics Choice, Globe, and BAFTA.
David Rooney
Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) – A bold, provocative reinvention synced to the current political moment.
Best Original Screenplay
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
Ryan Coogler (Sinners) – Voters will want to ensure he goes home with at least one Oscar for this unique, out-there film.
David Rooney
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value) – A piercing Norwegian drama balancing light and darkness in its reflection on family.
Best International Feature
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
Sentimental Value (Norway) – A nail-biter between this BAFTA winner and Brazil’s Critics Choice/Globe winner The Secret Agent.
David Rooney
The Secret Agent (Brazil) – A sui generis masterwork and a useful reminder of the dangers of ignoring history.
Best Animated Feature
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
KPop Demon Hunters – A Netflix-backed global phenomenon that has won every major prize except BAFTA (for which it was ineligible).
David Rooney
KPop Demon Hunters – A genuine pop culture phenomenon with insane energy, eye-searing colors, and catchy tunes.
Best Documentary Feature
Expert
Will Win
Should Win
Scott Feinberg
The Perfect Neighbor – Advantage: Netflix, in a race with no clear consensus from guilds.
David Rooney
The Perfect Neighbor – Reimagines true crime using police body-cam footage, starkly highlighting racial bias.
